Tuesday, July 24, 2007


The risk of running with the bulls!

Today’s correction was no surprise to most of us, but AT&T coming out and saying the iPhone’s first weekend of activations was less then anticipated was very surprising.

AT&T Inc. -- the sole provider of the new product -- said it activated 146,000 iPhones, while analysts had expected at least 200,000 during the first weekend.

The most important word in this report is “activated.” The iPhone is selling, but what analysts underestimated is the number of people who bought the iPhone and either sold it on e-bay or using it as an iPod. From what I have read the iPhone is not the easiest phone to activate, so a delay in activations is not a deal breaker. This may hurt Apples bottom line in the long run (due to contracts with AT&T) but the iPhone has definitely not been a disappointment.

Sub prime is continuing to take a huge hit, but is likely just the shorts trying to tear down anything they can. The demand for housing is not going to stop especially with the population growth. Countrywide (CFC) is one of the largest mortgage companies so it is likely a safe bet. With unemployment at all time lows, who is not paying there mortgage? Maybe everyone is buying the iPhone! Estimate- September 1 CFC is trading at $40

Disclosure: Long Apple & Countrywide

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