Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Negative Market
The market has been so negative lately, but earnings are still strong. Look at your favorite companies p/e ratios and you may find that they are at historic lows. I am a buyer at these levels and believe this is a temporary down turn. Lots of great buying opportunities. Financials and housing are way to volatile right now, but if you can pick the bottom or don't mind sitting on some stocks for a while, financials are really cheep.
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3 comments:
Did you get into aaple today... looked like a fresh low, but I think it would have been a good trade. My bet is we have another bounce..
I never understand options expiration though, but I think we may get a bounce, tomorrow or Monday.. But I also think that we will test 12800 after we test a high... All bets will be off if we hit 1490 on the S&P.
I bet we are range bound between 12800 and the October highs, till the end of Xmas.. unless we get some severe bad news..
Also, I think the market is about 60/40 that we get a recession in the next 6 months. In case you didn't know.
There has been a lot of talk about a recession, but earnings keep coming in strong (besides financials) and the unemployment is relativly low. If wall street wants a recession they will talk about it untill it comes true. I may sell a few positions on the next bounce, and take some gains off the table.
I always feel like an ass when I throw out my "investment advice"
Basically the PEG for the whole market is wrong... that is why we get the correction. We also are getting some sector rotation..
Based on the idea that we don't go into a recession, what the market is doing, is adjusting the market's linear regression to the new earnings. So Regardless, recession or not, the forward velocity of the market has to be adjusted to the slower growth.
So, yes the earnings are ok, but not as good as was cooked into the books.
As this applies to individual stocks it also applies to the market indexes.
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